Norway 2022
24/01/2022: PST published the 2022 Norwegian National Terrorist Threat Assessment where Norwegian authorities identify Islamism as one of the two most significant terror threats to Norway, alongside Far-Right. The threat is considered possible and is expected to come primarily from individuals rather than organized groups. These individuals are typically inspired by the ideology and propaganda of international terrorist organizations such as IS and Al-Qaeda, or are motivated by perceived provocations and oppression against Islam and Muslims. The report emphasizes that these extremists often operate within loose digital networks, where they maintain contact with like-minded individuals, share propaganda, and exchange practical information, such as instructions for making explosives. Many of these actors have physical connections to others in extremist circles, and in some cases, they are returnees from conflict zones or released prisoners. Norwegian extremists with contacts in these transnational networks represent an elevated risk, as these connections can facilitate radicalization and provide guidance for attacks. The ideology shared by IS sympathizers is particularly exclusionary, targeting all who do not follow their specific interpretation of Islam—including Muslims deemed heretical—as well as Western States and institutions. These groups frame the West as being in a perpetual war against Islam, and they use Western military interventions and perceived discrimination against Muslims as justifications for attacks.
Although the number of successful Islamist terror attacks in Europe decreased significantly between 2017 and 2021, attempted attacks—including in Norway—continue to occur. The report notes the May 2021 conviction of a 16-year-old in Norway for planning a terrorist attack. Moreover, it warns that sudden triggering events—especially those perceived as offensive to Islam—could rapidly escalate the threat level. Radicalization is anticipated to occur mainly through encrypted digital platforms that allow for anonymous communication and the spread of extremist content. Some radicalization also occurs in physical spaces such as family circles, prisons, religious gatherings, or among friends. Youths, sometimes as young as 12, are particularly vulnerable due to their susceptibility and lack of awareness of consequences. The report highlights that the likelihood of organized extremist Islamist groups forming in Norway remains low in 2022, partly due to the absence of a cause that resonates widely enough to unify such movements. Nonetheless, the threat posed by isolated individuals remains. In terms of potential attacks, extremists are expected to prefer simple means such as knives, arson, or vehicles, although there is still interest in using firearms and explosives. Likely targets include crowds, religious institutions, individuals perceived as having insulted Islam, and uniformed personnel. Attackers often expect to die during their attacks, which also presents significant risk to first responders. Finally, the report notes that while the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan has provided more space for groups like Al-Qaeda and IS, this development is expected to have limited immediate impact on the terror threat to Norway. IS and Al-Qaeda are currently focused on building regional strongholds rather than directing efforts at Western targets, though a small number of foreign fighters returning from these regions could shift that focus in the future. (Source)
06/04/2022: The Court of Appeals have reduced the sentence of the Norwegian-Pakistani IS returnee who was repatriated to Norway in January 2020 and sentenced to three and a half years in prison in May 2021, to two years and a half of imprisonment. It was mentioned throughout her trial that began on February 8, that she may have been victim of sexual and domestic abuse. She appealed the verdict to the Supreme Court. (Source)
31/05/2022: A 22-year-old Norwegian student born in Norway from Pakistani parents was arrested in Bulgaria and requested to be extradited. He is charged of supporting the cause of Al-Qaeda and of having published magazines aimed at young Western Muslims, urging them to commit terrorist attacks in Europe. According to the indictment, he had been active in the newly established group Hurras al-Tawheed for about a year on social media channels associated with the group Al-Qaeda. The same day his younger brother was arrested in Oslo for the same accusations and has been remanded in custody for 14 days with a restraining order. The detention is based on the risk of evidence being lost. Both are charged with participation in a terrorist organization, specifically section 136a of the Criminal Code, which applies to "anyone who forms, participates in, recruits members or provides financial or other material support to a terrorist organization". (Source)
16/06/2022: PST stated that the terrorist threat from Islamism in Norway has slightly decreased, though the overall threat level remains moderate. PST now assesses it as lowly likely—just under 40%—that Islamists will attempt a terrorist act in the next 18 months. This assessment is based on a decline in both the number of terror-motivating incidents and the influence of Norwegian-affiliated extremist groups. There has also been a broader reduction in Islamist attacks across the West since 2017. Nonetheless, the threat persists and could quickly escalate. Future attacks are most likely to come from lone individuals connected to online extremist networks, rather than organized groups, using simple methods against public gathering places or symbolic targets such as uniformed personnel or critics of Islam. Meanwhile, the threat from Far-Right terrorists remains possible—between 40–60% likely. Exposure to violent propaganda in online Far-Right networks continues to radicalize individuals. A Far-Right terrorist attack in Norway would most likely be a solo mass-casualty attempt. While schools are now considered potential targets, especially following similar plots in Europe, PST currently has no specific concerns regarding schools in Norway. Other likely targets include Muslim events, immigrant neighborhoods, and synagogues. (Source)
21/06/2022: A Norwegian man in his 40's has been arrested in Spain on suspicion of terrorist links and spreading propaganda associated with IS. He previously attempted to move to a conflict zone in Syria or Iraq with three others to fight as part of a terrorist organization. The other three are said to have previously participated in violent attacks, one of which is linked to terrorist acts in Grozny, Chechnya, where 21 people lost their lives. Being of of Iraqi background, he came to Spain from Norway in March 2021. (Source)
25/06/2022: An Iranian from Sanandaj who lived in Norway since 1991 and belonging to an Islamist network operating for IS assaulted with a gun the local LGBT pride event hosted in Oslo by shouting "Allah Ackbar". He started the onslaught in the night at the London Pub then moved to the bar Per på hjørnet and a takeaway restaurant while shooting on the overcrowded sidewalks. He was thereafter neutralized by authorities leaving 2 victims and 21 injured. The shooter was identified as Zaniar Matapour who has a "history of violence and threats", as well as "mental health issues". PST immediately qualified the attack as "an act of Islamist terrorism". (Source: Défense et sécurité internationale ; Contre-terrorisme du 16/06/22 au 15/18/22 ; 161 ; 2022 ; pp.12-13)
It was determined in the aftermath of the Oslo shootings that Zaniar Matapour was in touch with Norwegian-Pakistani Jihadist Arfan Bhatti who was once a prominent figure of Norwegian Jihadism and also one of the main figures of the former Profetens Ummah movement convicted in 2006 of shooting at a Synagogue and charged with plotting to blow up the Israeli and American embassies in Oslo. Although he grew up in Norway, he reportedly got radicalized after few years spent in Pakistan in the 2000's. On June 14, 2022 he posted messages on Facebook calling for the killing of gays quoting the Qoran. Bhatti currently lives in Pakistan yet he and Matapour were previously neighbors at some point. (Source)
Consequently, PST raised the national terrorism threat level to Level 5, indicating an "Extraordinary Threat Situation". This decision was made in response to a completed terrorist act in Norway and an ongoing, unresolved threat, which raised concerns about potential follow-up attacks. However, PST stated that this heightened level would be temporary. The threat level has since been lowered to Level 4, classified as "High". According to PST, several actors currently possess both the ability and the intent to carry out acts of terror in Norway. The change in the threat level reflects the fact that PST has now acquired more information about the perpetrator of the recent attack, his network of contacts, and his activities leading up to the incident. As a result, the situation appears less uncertain than it initially did, allowing for a more precise threat assessment. Two key aspects influenced the updated threat evaluation. The first concerns the possibility of further attacks related to the Oslo incident. PST continues to analyze the large volume of information generated by the attack and is actively investigating whether other individuals may have been involved. The second aspect relates to the inspirational effect that the attack may have on others. PST emphasizes that terrorist or violent acts in Western countries often stir strong emotions and draw widespread media attention, which can encourage other individuals in Norway—regardless of ideological, political, or religious orientation—to consider similar acts of violence. PST underlines that Islamists and Far-Right extremists both consider densely populated locations with minimal security as attractive targets. LGBT+ individuals are particularly at risk, as they are often viewed by such groups as symbols of liberal values. Similarly, individuals or institutions perceived to have insulted Islam are potential targets for Islamists. Uniformed police officers and members of the military in public spaces, along with religious gathering places, are also seen as symbolic and vulnerable targets. PST continues to closely monitor the threat environment and assess developments. Any changes in the national terror threat level will be communicated to the public without delay. (Source)
28/06/2022: The Norwegian student who was arrested in Bulgaria at the end of May and charged with terrorist participation, has been extradited to Norway where he agreed to be remanded in custody. (Source)
29/06/2022: Ibraahim M. Weli Sheikh from Skien whose trial for terrorist activities and propaganda started in May 2021, has ultimately been sentenced by the Supreme Court to thirteen years and ten months in prison for terrorist participation and attempted terrorism, thus increasing the sentence received in the Court of Appeal. The Court acknowledged him as a significant contributor to IS online. Furthermore, he shared recipes for making and using Molotov cocktails and firebombs and assisted in producing a film that was to be distributed on social media to encourage “brothers” to come to Denmark to carry out terror attacks. (Source)
20/07/2022: In the aftermath of the Oslo shootings, The Norwegian Police Directorate has received consent from the Ministry of Justice and Public Security that the police can still be armed for a period of up to 3 months, starting from July 20, 2022. (Source)
15/08/2022: The Oslo shootings have underscored flaws within the Norwegian security apparatus as there was a flagrant lack of communication between authorities prior to the attack that failed to prevent it. Consequently, the Norwegian Government updated the National Counterterrorism Strategy that was drafted in July 2021. This new version will set the Norwegian security framework until 2024 at least. Although it preserves the recommendations made in the last draft, it mostly emphasizes on cooperation and communication between stakeholders to ensure an enhanced detection and prevention of threats through collective efforts. (Source)
09/09/2022: Norwegian authorities intend to expel from the country a Somali woman who was involved in an alarming Islamist environment around Arfan Bhatti. In March 2019, the woman was sentenced to two years and nine months in prison for participating in the terrorist organization IS that she tried to join in Syrian back in November 2017, but she has completed this sentence in March 2021 yet remained in Oslo in municipal housing. As the first woman to be convicted of participation in a terrorist organization in Norway, Norwegian authorities claim she is a threat to the country. (Source)
23/09/2022: Oslo Police District has officialy acknowledged that Arfan Bhatti is now charged with complicity in Oslo Shootings and is also charged with violating the terrorism provision. As he is wanted internationally, first contacts with the Pakistani police for assistance in locating and arresting him where made thereafter but formal request to extradite him were submitted in November 2022. (Source)
26/09/2022: Two new suspects were arrested charged with involvement in the Oslo shootings. The first one is a 30-year-old Norwegian citizen who has previously been convicted of illegal possession of the MP40 submachine gun in May 2017. It is the same type of weapon that Zaniar Matapour used during the mass shooting. The environment linked to Bhatti and the terrorist group Profetens Ummah were mentioned in his judgment. The second suspect is a Somali citizen in his 40's also known to the police from previous incidents. Both have been formally charged with complicity in a terrorist act yet denies all charges. (Source)
28/09/2022: PST has lowered the national terror threat level from "High" to "Moderate" on its threat scale, which reflects the overall risk of ideologically, politically, or religiously motivated violence in 2022. This adjustment comes as the situation following the June 25, 2022 terrorist attack has become clearer and numerous security measures have since been implemented. A "Moderate" threat level indicates that one or more actors may have either the ability or the intent to carry out a terrorist act in Norway. PST emphasizes that its assessments are based on the information available at any given time and are always subject to a degree of uncertainty. (Source)
04/11/2022: The 19-year-old man arrested in Oslo in May 2022 while his brother was intercepted in Bulgaria, was released by the Oslo District Court. PST appealed the decision, and the Borgarting Court of Appeal ruled that he can be detained for four weeks with mail and visitation control. (Source)
20/12/2022: The Supreme Court ruled that the woman who returned from Syria and who was sentenced by the Court of Appeals in April 2021, could indeed be punished for participation in a terrorist organization but assessed that the most apropriate sentence would be one year and four months of imprisonment considering that she lived in a forced situation for over five years, in the period after she arrived in Syria. (Source)