Norway 2024
21/02/2024: A woman of Spanish background in her 40's who was arrested in Oslo in January 2024 and put in custody at Bredtveit Women's Prison, was extradited to Spain after living in Norway with her children for ten years. The woman was sought by Spanish authorities who charged her with participating in the terrorist group IS which she allegedly swore allegiance to, and she shared online content for recruiting new followers to the terrorist group. Moreover, it was stated that she can make explosives. She had already been arrested upon her return to Spain back in August 2023 yet she sneaked back to Norway via France in November as she presumed Spanish authorities would not request her extradition. (Source)
15/02/2024: PST has published the updated version of their yearly terrorism threat assessment for 2024. Although Islamism and the Far-Right are both depicted as the main national threats, PST still acknowledges that the former is more worrisome despite the lack of local support aside of individuals inspired by Al-Qaeda and IS. Much emphasis is made on the current context of the war between Israel and Palestine which may be conducive to further radicalization among people offended by the hardships of the Palestinians that are massively spread and exploited by Islamist propaganda. Norway pays much attention to the deteriorating security context of Sweden and Denmark which are both explicitly targeted by terrorist organizations in their official statements.
The national terror threat level in Norway remains "Moderate", at level 3 out of 5. This suggests that while individuals may have the intent to carry out attacks, there is no indication that realistic or concrete plans have been made. PST considers it possible, with a 40 to 60 percent likelihood, that both Far-Right extremists and Islamists will attempt to carry out terrorist acts in Norway in 2024. However, the threat posed by extreme Islamists is seen as more serious than that from Far-Right extremists.
There is a continuing threat of Islamist terrorism in Norway, primarily from individuals inspired by the ideologies of groups like IS and Al-Qaeda. The threat level is considered heightened compared to previous years, mainly due to increased global attention on Quran desecration and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Terrorist actions are likely to be carried out by one or a few perpetrators, often in contact with other extremists beforehand, either digitally or physically. Attackers are expected to use simple and readily available means, such as knives, arson, or vehicles. However, past thwarted attacks show a preference for more deadly weapons, such as improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and firearms, including pistols, shotguns, and rifles, which could be legally or illegally obtained. Extremists may wish to die during the attack, and fake explosive belts or similar devices have been used to provoke lethal police responses. The ideological drive behind such attacks often targets civilians, institutions, or individuals perceived to offend Islam, as well as uniformed police and military personnel. Recently, LGBTQ+ venues and religious sites have become more frequent targets.
Additionally, extremist networks, particularly those operating through encrypted digital platforms, enable radicalization and support for terrorism. These networks share extremist propaganda, bomb-making recipes, and attack strategies. Children and teenagers are also being drawn into these networks, making them vulnerable to radicalization due to their susceptibility and lower understanding of consequences. These young individuals might be inspired to carry out acts of violence or terrorism. Norway’s terrorist threat could increase if the country becomes a specific target of propaganda from global terror organizations. Furthermore, the release of convicted terrorists in Europe raises concerns, as they may re-enter extremist networks. The global situation, especially developments in conflict areas like Afghanistan and the African continent, may also influence the threat level in Europe, including Norway. (Source)
12/03/2024: Zaniar Matapour stands trial for committing the Oslo shootings back in June 2022. He was ultimately found guilty on July 4, 2024 and sentenced to thirty years in prison, with a minimum time of twenty years. This is the harshest condemnation ever drawn from authorities in Norway for terrorism charges. However, Matapour appealed the verdict later on. (Source)
25/03/2024: PST has published the Threat Assessment for Public Gatherings and Events in 2024 according to which crowded locations with little or no security remain the most vulnerable to terrorist attacks in Norway. Such venues are also exposed to espionage and transnational repression by state actors. PST considers it possible that both Islamists and Far-Right extremists may attempt terrorist acts in Norway in 2024. The threat from Islamists is considered more serious this year, primarily due to the war in Gaza and increased focus on Quran burnings. Targets include civilians, religious or symbolic institutions, police or military personnel, Jewish, Israeli, and American entities, as well as Christian churches and LGBTQ+ communities. Far-Right extremists may target religious minorities, people of non-Western appearance, LGBTQ+ individuals, politicians, media, authorities, and schools, particularly those familiar to young extremists. Holidays and commemorative days are attractive targets for extremists due to high attendance and symbolic value. Events involving public officials are at higher risk, as officials often fall within extremist enemy images or attract personally motivated threats. Potential attacks are likely to be carried out by one or a few individuals using easily accessible weapons, such as knives, fire, vehicles, firearms, or simple improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Visible and expected security measures reduce the attractiveness of events as targets, but may cause threat actors to shift their focus to softer targets. The report also includes a standardized set of probability terms such as “very likely”, “likely” and “possible” used to clarify the likelihood of politically motivated violence. It also explains PST’s five-level terror threat scale, ranging from Level 1 (no threat) to Level 5 (critical threat), based on severity, intelligence gaps, and the authorities’ response capabilities. (Source)
17/04/2024: PST published the Threat assessment Pride for 2024 stating that as of mid-April 2024, there is no information indicating that any violent attacks are being planned against Pride or LGBTQ+ events in Norway. Nonetheless, they expect a high number of threats and hate speech directed at Pride, particularly around June, the traditional Pride month. These threats are expected to be mainly verbal and online, often originating from minors, and rarely accompanied by actual intent to commit violence. LGBTQ+ people remain part of the enemy image held by both Islamists and Far-Right extremists. In recent years, LGBTQ+ issues have been a recurring focus in extremist propaganda. Although there have been terror attacks targeting LGBTQ+ communities, analysis of past attacks in Western countries shows that other groups are far more frequently targeted. Islamists perceive the Western world as being at war with Islam and view support for LGBTQ+ rights as immoral and offensive to their faith. In their view, LGBTQ+ individuals and the broader acceptance of diverse sexual identities represent a form of moral decay associated with the West. While their primary objective is not always to eliminate LGBTQ+ people specifically, these individuals often become symbolic targets due to their perceived connection to Western liberal values. Accordingly, Islamists may target not only LGBTQ+ individuals themselves but also those who support them, associate with them, or attend Pride-related gatherings. Although the likelihood of a planned attack on Pride events is currently considered low, such events may still attract attention from extremists seeking to make symbolic statements. Security measures are expected to reduce the risk of attacks on these events. However, increased security could also lead potential attackers to shift focus toward softer, less protected targets. The presence of Government officials and significant media coverage may also increase the attractiveness of such events to those who seek attention through violence. PST also warns that activism linked to current international events, such as the war between Israel and Hamas, could add to confusion and lead to unintended violent incidents in public gatherings. In conclusion, PST does not currently see evidence of any planned violent attacks on Pride events in Norway in 2024. However, the risk remains present in the form of extremist ideologies that continue to position LGBTQ+ communities within their broader narratives of enmity. Among these, the threat from Islamists stands out as particularly significant in both intensity and potential impact. (Source)
03/05/2024: Pakistani authorities finally confirmed and carried out the extradition of Arfan Bhatti for his involvement in the Oslo shootings after much delays since a previous aproval in February 2024. Following his landing at Gardermoen, Bhatti was arrested and taken straight to Kongsvinger Prison where his period of custody is extended repeatedly as Norwegian authorities fear risks of evidence loss and of evasion. However he is scheduled to appear in court as a witness. (Source)
13/06/2024: Norwegian PST kickstarted a campaign to tackle a thorny and alarming issue of Youth radicalization since a network of a dozen of children and teenagers between 12 and 17 year-old were spotted praising terror and murder of homsexuals on encrypted forums such as Discord and Telegram. They were allegedly dragged into those network through TikTok. This is quite alarming considering that the Oslo shootings during a LGBT pride event occured only two years ago. As PST deems that many young people think of it as trolling, and may not understand the seriousness or how the content actually approaches the criminal law in practice, no criminal charges have been filed regarding the threats made by the teenagers. According to the clues collected by PST montitoring and investigation activities, the network spreads Far-Right extremist speech and propaganda online. (Source)
However, PST has reportedly had a double-digit number of extremism cases involving children in the Western Police District alone so far and those statistics applies to both Far-Right extremism and Islamism. (Source)
29/06/2024: The Norwegian man who was arrested in Spain back in June 2022 on suspicion of terrorist activities, is now charged for committing two violations of the country's terrorism laws and the prosecution is asking for a seven-year prison sentence. He allegedly trained himself to carry out terrorist acts, as well as radicalized himself, through the internet and finally, he spread Jihadist propaganda material on the messaging service Telegram. His lawyer reportedly confirmed that charges have been filed in the case. Police found large amounts of Jihadist material on the man's cellphone, including videos of terrorist attacks and weapons manuals. The suspect denies all charges and claims he sought such content online out of curiosity to stay informed, especially during the 2020 coronavirus lockdown. It was confirmed by Deputy Director Helene Sandbu Ryeng at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, that he is receiving consular assistance "in line with normal practice". (Source)
08/10/2024: Norwegian PST has raised its assessment of the threat of a terrorist attack to "High", the second highest level on a five-point scale. Previously, the threat of a terrorist attack in Norway was at moderate level. The level was raised primarily due to the escalation in the Middle East. According to the security police's assessment, the greatest threat of a terrorist attack is directed at targets related to Israel or Jews. At present, PST has no information that there are concrete plans to carry out terrorist acts against Norwegian targets. Consequently, the police are introducing temporary armament. Such measures were already briefly implemented to prevent terrorist acts against churches and Christian targets during Easter on March 27, 2024, then again on April 6, 2024 due to threats against Muslim religious communities. (Source)
Special advisor Siv Sørensen in the PST's Counterterrorism Department, stated that one of the two Swedes involved in the attack against the Israeli embassy in Copenhagen has unclear connection to Iran and Norway. (Source)
14/11/2024: Norway has lowered the level of national threat from "High" to "Medium". This decision was supported by a better identification of the threat looming over the Jewish community following the several attempts to assult the Israeli embassies in Sweden and Denmark throughout the year by Iran-linked actors related to the so-called criminal "Foxtrot" and "Loyal to Familia" networks. (Source)
02/12/2024: The National Center for Violence and Traumatic Stress (NKVTS) has reportedly undertaken "the world's longest study of a terrorist act" following the 2022 Oslo shootings which has attracted international attention. NKVTS kickstarted this research project in the aftermath of the 2011 Utøya massacre committed by Far-Right terrorist Anders Breivik, to accumulate solid knowledge about the effect the two terrorist attacks had on the survivors. The researchers involved in this initiative also benefitted from the studies conducted following terrorist attacks in several foreign countries, and had delegations from Australia and Canada. Consequently, this project allowed NKVTS to develop cutting-edge expertise in the follow-up and consequences of disasters and terrorist attacks. (Source)