Norway 2026
16/01/2026: The Oslo District Court sentenced Arfan Bhatti to 30 years in prison for complicity in the Oslo shootings on June 25, 2022 and attempting to plan several other terrorst attacks. The trial started on September 2, 2025. Bhatti pleaded not guilty and claimed that he sympathized with the Talibans not IS. However this statement was contradicted by messages he previously sent proclaiming his allegiance to IS instead. He also denied addressing "extreme topics" with Zaniar Matapour, the terrorist who was already sentenced to 30 years in prison back in March 2024 for committing the mass shooting. Bhatti has appealed the decision so the verdict and the conclusions of the trial are not final yet. (Source)
06/02/2026: Norwegian PST delivered Norway’s 2026 National Threat Assessment that portrays, in compliance with the Government initiative to launch the first National Security Strategy in May 2025 to stand firm against "the most serious security situation since World War II" a comprehensive overview of threats from State actors and non-State actors, with particular emphasis on terrorism, extremism, and the convergence between ideological violence, organised crime, and hostile foreign intelligence activity, especially in Russia and Iran cases. It is now openly acknowledged and stated by Norwegian authorities that Iran resorts to Swedish criminal networks based in Norway as proxy actors to carry out disruptive activities or sabotage through terrorism. It has already been confirmed in Sweden, Denmark and Finland that Iran is using criminal gangs to carry out terrorist attacks. The Foxtrot network in Sweden serves the Islamic Republic of Iran for this purpose.
The overall terrorism threat level in Norway for 2026 is still assessed as "moderate", corresponding to level three on the national terrorism threat scale. Although this does not indicate an imminent attack, the assessment stresses that the threat landscape has become more complex, fragmented, and unpredictable. Lone actors, weak organizational structures, and overlapping motivations make early detection more difficult, especially when extremist violence intersects with criminal networks or proxy operations linked to foreign States.
Islamism is identified as one of the two most serious sources of terrorist threat to Norway alongside Far-Right terrorism. The assessment concludes that "there is an even chance that Islamist extremists will attempt to carry out terrorist attacks in Norway in 2026". This judgment is closely tied to the broader European context, where Islamist terrorist activity has been at its highest level in several years. The ongoing conflict in Gaza and wider instability in the Middle East are considered major drivers of radicalization, with Israeli military operations acting as a persistent catalyst for mobilisation and violence-oriented narratives across Europe. The report explains that the threat primarily originates from sympathisers of IS and Al-Qaeda rather than from centrally directed operations. These organizations currently prioritise inspiring individuals to act independently in Western countries, including Norway, through propaganda, operational guidance, and incitement disseminated online. Although Norway is not consistently singled out in global Jihadist propaganda, it is viewed as part of the broader Western enemy, and for domestically radicalized Islamists, Norway itself is considered a legitimate and primary target. The assessment underlines that Islamist networks in Norway are generally informal and loosely structured. There are no openly visible, coherent extremist organizations operating either physically or digitally, but a small number of individuals maintain connections to European and international Islamist networks. These links could be exploited to facilitate attacks, provide support, or connect potential attackers with resources and guidance. The absence of formal structures increases unpredictability and complicates preventive efforts.
Online radicalization is highlighted as a central concern, particularly among minors and young adults. Digital platforms function as the main arena for exposure to extremist content, social reinforcement, and operational learning. The report notes that radicalization is often intertwined with personal vulnerability, including mental health issues, social marginalization, or life crises, and that fascination with violence can precede ideological commitment rather than result from it. This dynamic significantly raises the risk posed by self-radicalized individuals acting alone. The assessment also points to emerging complexities, including the potential involvement of individuals sympathetic to Hamas in terrorist activity in Europe, as well as the possible use of proxy actors by Iran against Israeli and Jewish targets. These developments blur traditional distinctions between Jihadist terrorism, State-sponsored violence, and transnational repression, further complicating threat detection and attribution.
In conclusion, the document portrays Islamism as a persistent and adaptive threat to Norway in 2026. While the number of committed extremists remains limited, the combination of international crises, online radicalization, lone-actor dynamics, and external influence creates a sustained risk environment. The assessment emphasises that continued vigilance, intelligence cooperation, and early intervention are essential to mitigating the threat, even in the absence of clearly identifiable terrorist organisations operating on Norwegian soil. (Source)